Living with Covid19

Maanantai 20.12.2021 klo 15.39 - Mikko Nikinmaa

I am frustrated because of the blatant lies about coronavirus and vaccinations that are circulating in social media, and which people believe in. I am frustrated, because only fear-mongering seems to be an acceptable avenue for coronavirus news. I am frustrated, because the development of immunity on the basis of vaccinations and natural infections is not fully explained. I am frustrated, because in many places the decision-makers are making covid19 decisions completely based on fear, and not on expert opinions. Because of this frustration, I decided to write this blog.

First, it was clear from the beginning that the new coronavirus was going to be in our midst forever. This was clear, because it was transmitted from person to person easily, because it had spread widely already by the time it became headline news and because the mortality it caused was relatively small. The only effect different travel restrictions could have, was to slightly slow down the spread. There is only one way to stop the virus completely, not allowing any free interaction between people; interaction is accepted only between people frequently tested to be negative for covid19.

Once the virus was in our midst and could transmit from person to person, it naturally also mutated. That is what viruses do. The rate of mutations varies a lot, but there are a few restrictions to the types of viable mutations. Any structural changes must be such that the virus remains infective. This can be a very limiting factor behind structural changes available for the virus. Since the sole purpose of evolution is to make the virus as common as possible, the direction in the long run is to increase transmission but decrease the severity of disease. From South African data, it appears that the Omicron mutation has already reached high virulence and decreased severity of disease (at least in vaccinated population and among people who have caught the covid19 earlier). In the middle of November, there were about 600 reported infections and two weeks later around 40 deaths, in the beginning of December, there were about 15000 infections but two weeks later still only about 40 deaths.

This brings me to fear-mongering. Both the media and many governments have started shouting wolf about Omicron saying that since it is highly virulent, rising death toll follows. The South African information has not passed the publication threshold, because it is not alarming, and would not lend support to the travel restrictions and closing down societies which is now happening everywhere. Incidentally, the highest number of infections in South Africa was December 12 with close to 40000 cases. The number has since then decreased to 15000. But although the high case load may not lead to increased number of severely diseased people, I cannot expect that the panic-stricken reporters or cabinet members would ever admit that they have panicked.

The development of vaccines was much faster than ever before. This was possible because of research, which initially had nothing to do with vaccine development. However, when the need arose, much public money was placed in the development, and not a single step of normal vaccine development was omitted. Thus, from the onset one can say that the vaccines are as rigorously tested as the earlier, more slowly developed ones. The vaccines function in two ways, the initial but also more rapidly waning component is antibody production. The cell-mediated immunity develops slower but is more long-lasting. Cell-mediated immunity is boosted more by long intervals between vaccinations and repeated exposures to the causative virus or bacterium. This was the reason for the experts recommending long intervals between vaccinations. Our immunity towards most disease-causing agents is largely based on cell-mediated mechanism. When we come in contact to a disease-causing agent, which we have encountered preciously, our memory T-cells start multiplying and the immune response is much more rapid than with an unknown disease-causing organism. The more frequent the contact to the disease-causing microbe is the more robust the response is. The booster vaccinations strengthen especially this cell-dependent immunity.

Finally, lies about vaccines or the disease itself would be ridiculous if they weren’t taken seriously by many people. The vaccines do not contain microchips, they do not cause serious disease, they are not merely saline. They do, indeed, help people, and because especially cell-mediated immunity becomes more robust with increased number of vaccinations, the positive effect increases with booster shots. The disease itself is real, but instead of living in constant fear, we should start living with another disease. It cannot be eradicated and so we need to accept that like other diseases, it causes some deaths every year.