We could easily tolerate a two-degree increase in temperature, but not unpredictability of weather

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Torstai 29.6.2023 klo 16.24 - Mikko Nikinmaa

Human civilizations started flourishing about 10000 years ago, and there is a very simple reason for that. The weather conditions around the globe became stable. They were different in different parts of the world, but very predictable. You could count on that rain came at certain times, the dry periods needed for harvesting occurred at the end of the growing season, snows came and melted at predicted time…Agriculture has prospered as a result of predictable weather creating the civilizations which have grown until now. Although food production capacity has been questioned from time to time, and unwanted means to improve it has been used, the total amount of hunger has decreased to 2010’s thanks to weather stability.

During the last 5-10 years, famines have again started to increase!! And the increase is probably due to climate change.

Climate deniers always say that there is clearly no climate change, as there have been frosts in Texas and Spain at times they have earlier not occurred. However, that is actually one consequence of climate change. Upper atmosphere jet streams are important in generating weather patterns, especially influencing temperature. They used to be straight with the direction from southwest to northeast in Europe. The latitude of current shifted northwards during summer and southwards during winter thus favouring warm weather in summer and cold in winter. During the recent past the jet streams appear to have started undulating. Depending on the direction of the undulation the weather can be unusually cold or warm. Because scientists want statistical proof, so far this phenomenon has not been scientifically verified, for that to happen another ten years is required. The jet stream undulations and temperature changes also affect atmospheric pressures, wind strength and direction and rains. Droughts can become common in areas never having them earlier, and rains can become heavy, often occurring without any predictability.

The overall result is that the stability and predictability of weather, which is required for food production, is lost throughout the world. As a result, food production suffers, famines become more common again, and we will be facing a climate refugee wave, if climate change is not stopped, even if two degree temperature increase as such would be no problem.

Avainsanat: climate change, agriculture, famine

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